《生命科学》 2019, 31(1): 111-119
摘 要：摘 要：评估与预测模型在应对流行病与生物危害中发挥重要作用。相关数据、技术的发展，以及流行病防控需求等因素推动着该领域快速发展。基于SCI 论文，梳理了传染病与生物危害评估模型领域的发展演化历程和研究热点，并比较分析了该领域的国内外发展现状和趋势，结果显示：该领域的研究与疫情密切相关，建模与评估考虑的因素越来越多，由最初的疾病/ 病毒本身，到当前的气候变化、环境温湿度，以及人的行为、媒介等多因素；该领域目前的研究热点主要集中在媒介疾病及建模方法改进，已有部分新模型系统采用机器学习等新技术。我国已建立覆盖全国的流行病及相关危害监测系统，需进一步提高评估及预测能力。
Abstract: Abstract: Assessment and prediction models play an important role in responding to epidemics and biohazards.Many factors drive the rapid development of epidemics and biohazards assessment modeling， including advances in biotechnology and data procurement and great demand from public health. Based on papers from Web of Science， this article analyses the evolution and research hotspots in the field of epidemics and biohazard assessment modeling， and compares the international and domestic status of this field. The results show that the field is closely related to epidemic/pandemic outbreaks， and it considers more and more factors in modeling， from diseases or viruses to climate change， ambient temperature and humidity， and the influence of human behavior and animal vectors. Vector-borne diseases and modeling methods improvement are the current research hotspots in this field. New technologies， such as machine learning， have been adopted in some modeling systems. China has established a nationwide monitoring system of epidemics and related hazards， it is urgent to improve the capability of assessment and prediction.
